AZUSA PACIFIC UNIVERSITY

SCHOOL OF BUSINESS & MANAGEMENT

BUSI 311: Quantitative Analysis, Fall 2003

Roger B. Conover: Wilden 219

 (626) 815-3823; rconover@apu.edu

 

Summary:

This course presents students with mathematical tools useful for business decision-making. In addition, management tools such as forecasting, linear programming and project management techniques will be developed. The course will use a textbook, lectures and discussions. Student evaluation will be based on exams, presentations, participation and a comprehensive final exam.

 

This is a course about how to make good decisions. "Quantitative" means that most of the decisions that we will look at have numbers associated with them (an inescapable result of the fact that business decisions are usually associated with issues of goods and money). "Analysis" means that we will not be satisfied until we have developed a well-structured way of thinking about the issues. In the complex world of modern business, the failure to think clearly about the problems that you encounter will have serious consequences for your ability to accomplish your business goals.

 

At the beginning of this class, you should be able to:

1.      Apply college algebra to solving problems. College Algebra (or higher) is a prerequisite for this course.

2.      Use Microsoft Excel (or an equivalent spreadsheet program).

 

Upon completion of this course, students should:

 

  1. Know what analytical thinking is.

 

  1. Know how to apply analytical thinking to a variety of business problems.

 

  1. Know why analytical thinking is important for business decision-making.

 

  1. Know how to use Excel (or other spreadsheet software) to help organize information and solve analytical problems that arise in a variety of business situations. This includes being able to build their own spreadsheets to solve problems using moderately sophisticated mathematical functions included in Excel and being able to correctly interpret the resulting output.

 

  1. Be able to identify maximization and minimization problems in business, to extract the relevant data from the business situation and to formulate a Linear Programming problem that will help them solve the problem. Students should be able to correctly solve basic LP problems by hand and be able to correctly formulate the Excel spreadsheet to solve larger LP problems. Students should also be able to correctly interpret the output generated by Excel for application to their business problem.

 

  1. Be able to distinguish between risk and uncertainty. Students should be able to extract the relevant data from the business situation and to use the tools of decision analysis (including expected returns, risk aversion and decision trees) to help make good decisions in the face of risk or uncertainty. Students should be able to correctly solve basic decision problems by hand and be able to correctly formulate the Excel spreadsheet to solve larger decision problems. Students should also be able to correctly interpret the output generated by Excel for application to their business problem.

 

  1. Be able to identify problems in business containing numerous elements that are related, whether physically, temporally, or organizationally. The student should be able to represent such problems as a network, clearly identify the relevant objective and correctly apply the tools of network analysis in order to solve the problem. Students should be able to correctly solve basic network problems by hand and be able to correctly formulate the Excel spreadsheet to solve larger network problems. Students should also be able to correctly interpret the output generated by Excel for application to their business problem.

 

  1. Be able to identify problems in business that consist of a sequence of interrelated elements or activities (“projects”). Using the tools of PERT / CPM, students should be able to clearly identify the objective, organize the project to best meet the objective and manage the elements of a project throughout its duration. Students should be able to correctly solve basic PERT/CPM problems by hand and be able to correctly formulate the Excel spreadsheet to solve larger PERT/CPM problems. Students should also be able to correctly interpret the output generated by Excel for application to their business problem.

 

  1. Be able to identify business situations in which estimates of unknown values are required in order to be able to make decisions. Students should be able to identify the appropriate qualitative or quantitative method for developing a forecast for the unknown values. Students should also be able to correctly interpret the reliability of their forecasts. Students should be able to correctly solve basic forecasting problems by hand and be able to correctly formulate the Excel spreadsheet to solve larger forecasting problems. Students should also be able to correctly interpret the output generated by Excel for application to their business problem.

 

  1. For each of the above analytical tools, be able to correctly apply sensitivity analysis to the solutions that they obtain. They should be able to identify which elements of their business problems, if changed, may significantly affect their decisions and which elements may not. They should also be able to correctly identify situations in which they need and should acquire further information before making a decision. Students should be able to correctly interpret the sensitivity reports generated by Excel for application to their business problem.

 

Required Text: Introduction to Management Science, 2nd ed., by Hillier and Hillier (Irwin McGraw-Hill, 2003).

 

Office Hours: Make an appointment with me or drop by MWF 2:15– 3:30. E-mail is also a good way to get some questions answered.

 

Revisions:

This syllabus may be revised during the semester by the professor as needed.

 

Classroom Decorum:

 

From The Chronicle of Higher Education, 3-27-98: “Professors are complaining that their courses are being hijacked by 'classroom terrorists.’  Among the milder affronts: Students are arriving late and leaving early, napping in the back of the room, carrying on running conversations, reading the newspaper, even bringing portable televisions into class.”

 

Please respect and love your fellow students. Demonstrate that love by preparing for the day’s class ahead of time so that you can actively share your insights with the others. Come to class on time. Turn your cell phones off as you enter. Refrain from talking except in the general discussion. Do not pass notes to one another in class. Be civil and courteous to one another. Correct those who fail to show respect for the rest of the class, but do so in love.

 

Attendance Policy:

Students are expected to attend every class, and attendance will be taken. Students that arrive after class has begun will be counted as absent. Points will be deducted from a student’s final score according to the following schedule:       

0 to 2 = 0;      3 or more = 20 points each.

Students that are late or absent because of an approved university event must inform the instructor prior to such an event. While students are still responsible for assignments due and material presented on such days, this absence will not be counted against their total.


Academic Honesty:

Academic honesty is an assumed ethical standard at this university. Any work throughout the course that is copied from another source without appropriate citation of that source violates the standard of academic honesty. If violations of the academic honesty policy occur, all papers involved will receive zero points, the situation will be reported to the Dean of Students and further steps may be taken in accordance with the Academic Honesty Policy in the APU Student Handbook. I do not give "warnings."

 

Educational Support:

Please make use of the variety of support systems developed to enhance your achievement in this class. First, a Supplemental Instruction (SI) tutor will be available for this course. See the SI for additional information on meeting times and places. I also strongly recommend making use of my office hours for help with the material in this course. We can make an appointment if my office hours do not match your schedule. The book’s website also has helpful information for the text. It’s at: 

http://www.mhhe.com/hillier2e

 

Any student in this course who has a disability that might prevent you from fully demonstrating your abilities should meet with an advisor in the Learning Enrichment Center as soon as possible to initiate disability verification and discuss accommodations that may be necessary to ensure your full participation in the successful completion of course requirements.

 

General Grade Expectations:

Your grade will depend upon your performance on the tests and the final exam. No extra credit is available except as may be occasionally announced in class. Students who are concerned about their grades should see the instructor as early as possible during the semester to work out possible strategies for improving your performance. Grades will not be changed after the course is over except in the case of clerical error. Grade appeals procedures may be found in the Student Handbook.

 

In general, the following guidelines will apply to this course. Your specific grade will be determined by the point total that you accumulate throughout the course.

 

Grade A: Outstanding knowledge regarding details, assumptions and implications of quantitative analysis; demonstrates superior thinking with information relevant to application, critique, relationship to other information.

B: More than adequate knowledge regarding technical terms, distinctions, ability to begin using information; demonstrates ability to think clearly about the information and its relationship to other information.

C: Basic knowledge needed to function and carry on learning regarding major principles, central terms, major figures, awareness of the field.

D: Serious gaps in knowledge, confusion of concepts and categories, inability to recall basic information.

F: Absence of knowledge, incapable of carrying on a conversation about the subject, misunderstands most concepts, confuses all categories.

 

Specific Grading Policy: There are 450 points possible in the course:

 

            Exams (3 x 100)                                                         300            (Scales TBA)

            Final (comprehensive)                                           150            (Scale TBA)

                                                                                                450

 

The exams will be one class period each. These and the final will consist of a combination of objective/short answer problems, multiple choice problems, Excel spreadsheet design problems and calculation problems. No notes or study aids (including the papers of other students) may be used. Basic-function calculators are permitted. Programmable or graphing calculators, cell-phones or PDAs are not permitted.

 

The final will be comprehensive. There will be no make-up exams. With prior approval of a valid, documented excuse, the points on one missed exam will be added to the value of the final and the results scaled appropriately. There is no provision for missing more than one exam, and you must take the final.

 

Problem Solving:

Practicing by solving problems is ABSOLUTELY ESSENTIAL to learning mathematical techniques. The following is a list of problems from the end of the chapters that we will cover that I would suggest represents the minimum required for a basic understanding of the material. I expect that you will work more problems than just these. In class on specified days, I will review any of these questions that people would like to discuss. While these will not be turned in, I may ask class members to (informally) present their answers to portions of the problems to the rest of the class. I cannot stress enough the importance of working these and other problems from the chapters!

 

Chapter 1:            3, 5, 7, 8, 9, 10

Chapter 2:            5, 6, 8, 9, 11, 30, 36, 45

Chapter 3:            2, 4

Chapter 4:            3, 4, 10, 11, 12, 14, 16, 18, 23

Chapter 5:            1, 2, 8, 9, 10

Chapter 7:            2, 4, 5, 9, 11, 17

Chapter 8:            3, 4, 12, 13, 14, 19, 20

Chapter 13:            2, 6, 7, 13, 17, 23, 30, 32

 


SCHEDULE OF CLASS MEETINGS: BUSI 311- Quantitative Analysis

 

WEEK              TOPIC                                                   HAVE READ              

                                                                                   

  9/3-5            INTRODUCTION- (and Graphing)                      ---

 

   8-12   Linear Programming                                         1, 2

 

 15-19   Linear Programming,

 

 22-26   LP and Spreadsheets                                        3                                             

Exam #1 (9/26)                                               Chapters 1-3

 

29-             Applications of Linear Programming                 4         

  10/3                                                               

 

   6-10            Applications of Linear Programming;

Sensitivity Analysis in Linear Programming            5

 

 13-17            Sensitivity Analysis in Linear Programming            -          

Exam #2 (10/17)                                              Chapters 4-5

 

 20-24   Network Optimization Problems                                  7

 

 27-31   Network Optimization Problems,                                            

            Project Management                                         8

      29   School-Specific Activity Day

 

11/3-7   PERT / CPM                                                     -

 

 10-14   PERT / CPM: Uncertainty                                -          

 

 17-21   PERT / CPM: Crashing                                      -          

Exam #3 (11/21)                                              Chapters 7-8

 

 24-26             Forecasting                                                       13

 

      28            Thanksgiving Holiday                                    

 

12/1-5            Forecasting                                                       -          

 

12/9-12 FINAL EXAMS:  PLEASE CHECK THE FINAL EXAM SCHEDULE FOR TIMES.